Month: March 2018

Atilla sentencing memo. Plus exhibits. Including “friends.”

~ Tim Hogan ~ Leave a comment

Atilla memo

 

20180326 (498) Atilla Sentencing memo

20180326 (498) Atilla Sentencing memo Exhibit A

20180326 (498) Atilla Sentencing memo Exhibit B

20180326 (498) Atilla Sentencing memo Exhibit C

20180326 (498) Atilla Sentencing memo Exhibit D

20180326 (498) Atilla Sentencing memo Compendium Part 1 Redacted letters

20180326 (498) Atilla Sentencing memo Compendium Part 2 Colleagues

20180326 (498) Atilla Sentencing memo Compendium Part 3 Friends

 

特朗普是普京的傀儡。 特朗普对中国采取的行动必须从俄罗斯制造麻烦的角度来看待。 中国人发明了耐心。 特朗普很快就会走了。 不要让普京和特朗普摧毁我们的关系。

~ Tim Hogan ~ Leave a comment

Translation:

Trump is Putin’s puppet. Trump’s actions against China must be viewed from the perspective of Russia creating trouble. The Chinese invented patience. Trump will soon be gone. Do not let Putin and Trump destroy our relationship.

Text of Gen. #Votel’s statement in Senate hearing today re #SDF, #Afrin, #Turkey and civilian counsels. #YPG #YPJ

~ Tim Hogan ~ Leave a comment
Excerpt:
For the Coalition, the SDF’s liberation of ISIS’ capital Raqqah in October 2017 was a significant turning point in the conflict. The SDF, which is composed of local Sunni Arabs and Kurds, has been a valuable partner in the fight against ISIS, and they sacrificed greatly to liberate large portions of their country.
Simultaneous operations by the SDF in Syria and the ISF and PMF in Iraq effectively isolated ISIS remnants in the Middle Euphrates River Valley (MERV) and along the Syrian side of the Iraq-Syria border where both forces are currently conducting operations to kill or capture all remaining ISIS fighters.
Pro -Regime Forces (PRF) and Russia also continue to operate in the MERV as they isolate ISIS fighters south of the Euphrates River, though Assad’s decision to prematurely withdraw his forces has likely given valuable breathing room to ISIS on the western side of the river. With PRF operating in close proximity to Coalition-backed forces in the MERV, de-confliction measures are vital, and we have worked closely with Russia to prevent accidental strikes and to ensure the safety of the various forces on an  increasingly complex battlefield.
The Coalition does not seek to fight the Syrian regime, Russian or pro – regime forces partnered with them. While the deconfliction efforts have been largely effective, the Coalition recently demonstrated its commitment to defend U.S. and partner forces operating in Syria by striking PRF that conducted an unprovoked attack on SDF and Coalition forces. And we will continue to do so, as necessary.
Though our partnership with the SDF is critical to defeating ISIS in Syria, it has created challenges with our NATO ally Turkey, who views the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) elements within the SDF as analogous to the PKK terrorist group. U.S. Special Operations forces have been working with vetted elements of the SDF for several years to defeat ISIS. Our assistance to the SDF has been focused on this goal, and we have included safeguards and transparency measures to ensure it does not physically threaten Turkey. In January, Turkey began air strikes and ground incursions into the
predominantly Kurdish enclave of Afrin, where CENTCOM has no presence or direct relationships in northwest Syria, in an attempt to, according to the Government of Turkey, “remove the terrorist threat from its border.” Though we have no relationship with YPG fighters in Afrin, who previously cooperated with Russia and the regime, these operations directly impact our ability to affect a lasting defeat against ISIS through the SDF. Many fighters in the SDF have familial ties to the Kurds in Afrin, and they are now forced to choose between completing operations against ISIS fighters in the MERV and assisting their fellow Kurds in northern Syria. Our alliance with Turkey is paramount,
and we will continue to assist the Turkish military in countering the PKK and other VEOs that threaten their border, but we must continue to urge restraint as their actions have clearly increased risk to our campaign to defeat ISIS .
Amidst the visible damage caused by the Syrian civil war, the country has also witnessed a far less-publicized change: democratic organizations in the form of local civil councils have assembled in places previously controlled by ISIS. These councils are providing the necessary basic functions of governance and starting to rebuild their war – torn communities. These ad-hoc democratic organizations come in various forms and engage in a range of activities from providing the most basic services to rallying the population against the re-emergence of VEOs. For example, in the cities of Manbij and Raqqah, local councils ran civic campaigns against ISIS in concert with more moderate rebel groups, providing a two – pronged strategy that ultimately prevented ISIS from regaining a foothold in these areas.
In other parts of Syria, councils have developed a more sophisticated capacity and are building roads, repairing sewage lines, and holding local elections.  As Secretary of State Tillerson has said , “Interim local political arrangements that give voice to all groups and ethnicities supportive of Syria’s broader political transition must emerge with international support.” Any interim arrangements must be truly representative and must not threaten any of Syria’s neighboring states. Similarly, the voices of Syrians from these regions must be heard in Geneva and in the broader discussion about Syria’s future.” The key to the success of these groups is their ability to maintain legitimacy among the populace.
Although these local councils have made great strides, they can only provide aid and assistance to the population at the pace at which they receive it. As we enable local solutions to local problems, supporting these local councils with our full range of Department of Defense, interagency, and Coalition capabilities will help them maintain popular support and set conditions for enduring, stable governance.
A significant challenge we face as we complete the defeat of ISIS is the repatriation of hundreds of foreign fighters to their home countries. The SDF and ISF are both holding several hundred fighters from a number of different countries in prisons or temporary detention facilities, with no clear process for prosecution or repatriation. The longer these fighters remain in detention together, the greater danger they pose as they form new connections, share lessons learned, and prepare to re-establish networks upon their release or escape. This urgent problem requires a concerted international effort
involving law enforcement, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic agreements.

If #Erdogan asked what’s #Turkey’s best outcome in #Syria, this is what I’d tell him.

~ Tim Hogan ~ Leave a comment

When you handle cases you advise clients of possible best & worst outcomes. Then you advise of your best guess for the likely outcome.  Turkey has had 40 years of war with the PKK in the east.  Now war in the south with the YPG.   How long in a worst case scenario could the southern war last?  We know 40 years has past and the east is still at war.  My middle estimate for the southern war is no fewer than 10 years.  In the best case scenario I can’t see an outcome that does not include at least 4 years of the southern war.  40+ is more likely.

Moody’s just down graded Turkey on many financial fronts including foreign currency reserves. Turkey has set off on a war that will soon likely cost the lives of more Turkish forces than were lost by the US in all the modern US Mideast wars.  Turkey’s Vietnam.  But Vietnam was 7,000 miles from the US. Syria is Turkey’s next-door neighbor.

Today there was documentary evidence on Twitter of Turkey funding foreign jihadists, just like ISIS did, with amounts of cash offered for specific services. Link to the Afrin price list.  Payments to families of martyrs, etc.  It proves Turkey’s own citizens don’t support this war.  Erdogan can fill a room with war widows but where are the college students?  No fresh dictator lasts where the students don’t rally to them.  Especially where he’s already locked up his army.

Finally, Turkey’s birthrate is falling.  By continuing the Kurdish wars, Turkey impacts the local economies of the Kurdish regions that will necessarily cause increase poverty with  corresponding increases in Kurdish birth rates.  Turkey’s own quest for empire inches it ever closer to irrelevance.

This is a good time to start talking seriously about Kurdistan.

Tim

I come from a Massachusetts Irish American law enforcement family. That’s my grandfather Tim around WWI. During WWII the FBI would ask him if someone in Holyoke should get a clearance. He’d say, “Christ, he’s Irish. He’ll be okay.” Mike Flynn ended that. Flynn is Irish too.

~ Tim Hogan ~ Leave a comment

tim Continue reading “I come from a Massachusetts Irish American law enforcement family. That’s my grandfather Tim around WWI. During WWII the FBI would ask him if someone in Holyoke should get a clearance. He’d say, “Christ, he’s Irish. He’ll be okay.” Mike Flynn ended that. Flynn is Irish too.” →

Did Tillerson sell out the #SDF in Ankara for money? Is that why he had no US witnesses? @StateDept @NSAGov @DefenseIntel @brett_mcgurk

~ Tim Hogan ~ Leave a comment

Everything points to Trump using Tillerson to pick up where Flynn left off to work Trump family deals with al-Qaeda affiliated AKP and Erdogan. Likely Putin too.

By now the US NSA and many of the other intelligence services know why Tillerson had no witnesses in the room. The NSA all think they are immune.  But treason has no immunity.  They should think of their families. Perhaps a friend in another intelligence service will bail them out and disclose what Trump and Tillerson did.  We’d do it for them wouldn’t we?

Tim

Putin’s proxies, prostitutes and the presidential campaign in Lebanon.

~ Tim Hogan ~ 1 Comment

From one of the voices silenced by the Twitter jihadists.

For decades, Russia was not able to infiltrate the Christian regions, the Christians were allied with Europe and the U.S. against the axis of evil: Russia-Iran-Assad-Hezbollah-Palestinians. Since the 40s, Russia has been arming and funding Islamists like PLO (originally the Fedayeen) and Jihad Al-Islami, who were like Qaeda and later became Hamas, Hezbollah and other factions. Back in the 70s the PLO were “Jaysh Al-Sunna” (Army of Sunni) for the Muslim – as declared by Abu Ammar – and the “Communist” branch for Russia. The U.S. was supporting Israel and infiltrating the Middle East, while Russia was thwarting U.S., Europe, Israel and the NATO by keeping it busy in Lebanon at the Israeli front. Billions of dollars and European currencies, Saudi riyal, Iranian rial and Russian ruble and weapons were pumped into Lebanon. The Islamists, Alt Right, Alt Left and Left supported Russia, while the Right and Centrists supported the U.S.-Europe-Israel-NATO. History repeats itself. The “anti-imperialists” Russian front was formed of hundreds of mixed terrorist groups, thousands of fighters, who fought, smuggled weapons, dealt with drugs under the banner “anti-imperialism”, back then like today, the same Russian media message. Thousands stormed into Lebanon under Russia’s orders, the master of chaos brought together the weirdest combinations: The German RAF (Antifa far left socialists), Irish IRA (Catholic republican socialists), Italian Red Brigade (Antifa far left Marxists), Japanese Red Army (Communists who called themselves Arabs), PLO (Sunni Islamists for Muslim, Communists for Russian), Hezbollah (Shia Islamists), both PLO and Hezbollah had same war methods as ISIS and Qaeda, PKK (Kurdish party which was Sunni then became communist, then when alliance shifted with the US, they became Communal socialists), Syrian Baath (“secular” but based on Sharia and hate Jews and the West), Syrian Nazi (SSNP, “secular” Alt Right nationalist Syrians but based on Sharia and hate Jews and the West), Lebanese leftists and communists, Iranian MEK (Shia Islamists today known as NCRI or PMOIK), IRGC (The Iranian Shia Islamists), French Action directe (AD was far-left), Belgian Communist Combatant Cells (CCC), and others, not to mention all Arab Islamists Somalian, Sudanese, Moroccan, Algerian and other mercenaries. They all came to Lebanon to declare war on NATO, use Lebanon as a battlefield and combat Israel in Lebanon. Today, I remember the war and see it again, the same method but few things changed. Not all the Sunni are on the alleged “anti-imperialist front”, some joined the U.S. and prefer Israel to Russia and Iran. In Lebanon, Russia infiltrated the Christian pro-U.S. by sending for decades its Russian prostitutes who changed the society. Russia uses all possible legitimate and illegitimate tools to wage wars and infiltrate states. A lesson I learned, because I was born and grew up in a country torn by wars, I grew up between men fighting on fronts, fighting for our lives, I saw death daily in all its forms, and all were ugly. I saw what a John Doe reader from Western societies did not see and will not understand, that’s is why it is easy to manipulate him through the social media when proxies and prostitution fail. Russia infiltrated Lebanon through proxies and prostitutes, meanwhile also because of the oil and gas at Lebanon’s shores. The Syrian war gave Russia access through the planned Iran Deal, Obama made concessions, all had its advantages and disadvantages. Russia advanced, but the rift between Sunni and Shia deepened, and finally the Islamic teachings leading to terrorism were discussed. Even Alt Right and Alt Left terrorism is discussed, people are getting more and more aware and understanding better the world occurrences leading to wars. Russia advanced and took over a large part of Lebanon, but the U.S. is not standing and watching nor are Israel, NATO and the Europeans. Russia today hanged posters of Russian President Vladimir Putin in various regions of Lebanon, in preparation for the presidential elections scheduled for March 18, 2018 in Russia, as announced by the official Russian embassy in Lebanon: “Today, Russian citizens have joined the presidential campaign, and these posters can be seen in different regions in Lebanon and we hope that the Russian community will participate in the upcoming presidential elections on March 18 at the Russian Cultural Center in Beirut.” But who knows whether Russia will be able to hang posters of Putin and Russian in the next presidential elections.