The recent muted criticism and feigned surprise of the U.S. regarding the combined action of Egyptian and United Arab Emirates air forces in Libya has quietly drifted away front the front page.  This action that the U.S. claims it was not advised of in advance and the manner in which the U.S. stood back in Iraq requiring as a condition of U.S. involvement a unity government are showing the outlines of the developing Obama Doctrine.

This policy dictates that the U.S. no longer serve as the world’s police force is most evident in the policy regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Though the Obama administration would have been better to not have told the Russian dictator that the U.S. would not intervene the resulting war and imminent threat against NATO front line nations has given rise to the clearest example of the Obama Doctrine at work: NATO allies are now actually putting their own forces and treasure at risk on the front lines of the former Warsaw Pact Baltic nations that are most at risk of an attack by the Russian mission to reclaim the former Soviet empire.

The next test of the Obama Doctrine is Syria.  With some form of cooperation with the combined forces of Kurds, Sunni and Shiite in Iraq appearing possible, the next step will be how to deal with Syria.  The reported incursion of Syrian forces into areas of the Golan Heights controlled by Israel is the signal that the Obama Doctrine may have given the job of getting rid of Assad to the Israeli Army. Once he is gone the U.S. can fill in and begin the long battle to route out the murderous IS forces.

Talking Points:

Russia agrees and immediately stops supplying arms and support to the separatists who will be allowed to leave Ukraine and go to Russia.

UN SC puts forces in Crimea to stop the ethnic cleansing of the Tartars.  This will require that Russia not veto the UN SC resolution and that it cooperate with the UN force.

Ukraine restores water and utility services to Crimea.  UN border control established  in Crimea including Kerch and other ports to control military traffic to Crimea.  Food and other necessities allowed to be re-supplied.  Russian forces reduced to pre-February levels.

A period of stability passes at the end of which, the UN holds a plebiscite in Crimea for the residents who lived there before February 2014.

The choices offered in the plebiscite will be 1) Russian annexation, 2) return to Ukraine, or 3) independent autonomous Crimean state.  The vote will be final and controlling and affirmed by the Ukraine and Russian parliaments.  Russian navy will be granted 15 year extension on any naval lease rights if the choice is Ukraine or independent Crimea.

Russia pays damages for the destruction it caused in East Ukraine.  EU and US also continue to contribute to rebuild Ukraine economy.

Ukraine and NATO agree to defer any discussion of NATO membership for up to five years.  The parties agree to consider Ukrainian neutrality as a way to avoid future conflict. Violation by Russia of Ukrainian sovereignty and NATO related agreement terminates.

When the conditions above are met,  all sanctions shall terminate.