The agents testified that they were courteous and friendly to the prisoner, Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, 

First: I have never adopted the prevailing narrative on the Prigozhin mutiny. As has been generally reported it was not a coup but a break-down in force morale leading to separation from the central command authority. By definition it was a mutiny but the reasons I think it occurred go back to the weeks before the Wagner victory at Bakhmut. Simply stated it was a mob boss collecting money owed his crew. Nothing more than that. But the pretext of an attempted putsch was necessary to obscure the Russian state’s existence as little more than a massive an organized crime syndicate.

Second: Prigozhin traveled back and forth from St. Petersburg to Moscow many times from the mutiny to July 18 when his plane stopped being picked up by the commercial trackers. He could have been assassinated at any of these flights.

Third: I began reporting on what turned out to be Prigozhin’s troll factory going back to 2015. So did the NY Times before it turned to the dark side. Wagner and Prigozhin’s troll army is too valuable to Putin’s survival to destroy them.

Fourth: Putin’s only hope of a strategic victory is to elect Donald Trump again and end US support for Ukraine. Based on my experience in spotting them on Twitter I am certain his trolls and sock puppets are already in full operation with material assistance of the Elon Musk and likely with the support and agreement by members of the the Saudi , Qatari and Emirati ruling elite who are part of the jihadist war on the west.

Fifth: By announcing Prigozhin’s death Putin and the FSB can ferret out disloyal members much like Mau’s 100 Flowers Movement. The Wagner who grumble will be eliminated. I would watch for the FSB surveillance on the Wagner members to confirm this.

Sixth: Prigozhin’s plane flew without transponder from July 18 until hit alleged flight yesterday that was reported to be his last. There were two planes. One could have carried Prigozhin and the Wagner members Prigozhin and Putin wanted to live and the one with Prigozhin’s transponder marked to be shot down, eliminating people Prigozhin and Putin wanted dead. I would watch plastic surgeons and the actions of the troll farms. If one or more move I would look for a plastic surgeon in the area. Also, the reason some may have been culled could be economic. I would use that to exploit division in Wagner and further erode Putin’s authority.

Conclusion: I think it is less than 25% likely Prigozhin is dead.

Recommendation: Post a reward for proof he’s alive. Let them know that the trick didn’t work and simply watch the circuits. Take extreme measures to bring down the troll farms enlisting the Ukrainian intelligence service if they will assist. Offer then another 40 F-16’s to round it out as four operational squadrons with one reserve/repair.