When you handle cases you advise clients of possible best & worst outcomes. Then you advise of your best guess for the likely outcome. Turkey has had 40 years of war with the PKK in the east. Now war in the south with the YPG. How long in a worst case scenario could the southern war last? We know 40 years has past and the east is still at war. My middle estimate for the southern war is no fewer than 10 years. In the best case scenario I can’t see an outcome that does not include at least 4 years of the southern war. 40+ is more likely.
Moody’s just down graded Turkey on many financial fronts including foreign currency reserves. Turkey has set off on a war that will soon likely cost the lives of more Turkish forces than were lost by the US in all the modern US Mideast wars. Turkey’s Vietnam. But Vietnam was 7,000 miles from the US. Syria is Turkey’s next-door neighbor.
Today there was documentary evidence on Twitter of Turkey funding foreign jihadists, just like ISIS did, with amounts of cash offered for specific services. Link to the Afrin price list. Payments to families of martyrs, etc. It proves Turkey’s own citizens don’t support this war. Erdogan can fill a room with war widows but where are the college students? No fresh dictator lasts where the students don’t rally to them. Especially where he’s already locked up his army.
Finally, Turkey’s birthrate is falling. By continuing the Kurdish wars, Turkey impacts the local economies of the Kurdish regions that will necessarily cause increase poverty with corresponding increases in Kurdish birth rates. Turkey’s own quest for empire inches it ever closer to irrelevance.
This is a good time to start talking seriously about Kurdistan.
Everything points to Trump using Tillerson to pick up where Flynn left off to work Trump family deals with al-Qaeda affiliated AKP and Erdogan. Likely Putin too.
By now the US NSA and many of the other intelligence services know why Tillerson had no witnesses in the room. The NSA all think they are immune. But treason has no immunity. They should think of their families. Perhaps a friend in another intelligence service will bail them out and disclose what Trump and Tillerson did. We’d do it for them wouldn’t we?
From one of the voices silenced by the Twitter jihadists.
For decades, Russia was not able to infiltrate the Christian regions, the Christians were allied with Europe and the U.S. against the axis of evil: Russia-Iran-Assad-Hezbollah-Palestinians. Since the 40s, Russia has been arming and funding Islamists like PLO (originally the Fedayeen) and Jihad Al-Islami, who were like Qaeda and later became Hamas, Hezbollah and other factions. Back in the 70s the PLO were “Jaysh Al-Sunna” (Army of Sunni) for the Muslim – as declared by Abu Ammar – and the “Communist” branch for Russia. The U.S. was supporting Israel and infiltrating the Middle East, while Russia was thwarting U.S., Europe, Israel and the NATO by keeping it busy in Lebanon at the Israeli front. Billions of dollars and European currencies, Saudi riyal, Iranian rial and Russian ruble and weapons were pumped into Lebanon. The Islamists, Alt Right, Alt Left and Left supported Russia, while the Right and Centrists supported the U.S.-Europe-Israel-NATO. History repeats itself. The “anti-imperialists” Russian front was formed of hundreds of mixed terrorist groups, thousands of fighters, who fought, smuggled weapons, dealt with drugs under the banner “anti-imperialism”, back then like today, the same Russian media message. Thousands stormed into Lebanon under Russia’s orders, the master of chaos brought together the weirdest combinations: The German RAF (Antifa far left socialists), Irish IRA (Catholic republican socialists), Italian Red Brigade (Antifa far left Marxists), Japanese Red Army (Communists who called themselves Arabs), PLO (Sunni Islamists for Muslim, Communists for Russian), Hezbollah (Shia Islamists), both PLO and Hezbollah had same war methods as ISIS and Qaeda, PKK (Kurdish party which was Sunni then became communist, then when alliance shifted with the US, they became Communal socialists), Syrian Baath (“secular” but based on Sharia and hate Jews and the West), Syrian Nazi (SSNP, “secular” Alt Right nationalist Syrians but based on Sharia and hate Jews and the West), Lebanese leftists and communists, Iranian MEK (Shia Islamists today known as NCRI or PMOIK), IRGC (The Iranian Shia Islamists), French Action directe (AD was far-left), Belgian Communist Combatant Cells (CCC), and others, not to mention all Arab Islamists Somalian, Sudanese, Moroccan, Algerian and other mercenaries. They all came to Lebanon to declare war on NATO, use Lebanon as a battlefield and combat Israel in Lebanon. Today, I remember the war and see it again, the same method but few things changed. Not all the Sunni are on the alleged “anti-imperialist front”, some joined the U.S. and prefer Israel to Russia and Iran. In Lebanon, Russia infiltrated the Christian pro-U.S. by sending for decades its Russian prostitutes who changed the society. Russia uses all possible legitimate and illegitimate tools to wage wars and infiltrate states. A lesson I learned, because I was born and grew up in a country torn by wars, I grew up between men fighting on fronts, fighting for our lives, I saw death daily in all its forms, and all were ugly. I saw what a John Doe reader from Western societies did not see and will not understand, that’s is why it is easy to manipulate him through the social media when proxies and prostitution fail. Russia infiltrated Lebanon through proxies and prostitutes, meanwhile also because of the oil and gas at Lebanon’s shores. The Syrian war gave Russia access through the planned Iran Deal, Obama made concessions, all had its advantages and disadvantages. Russia advanced, but the rift between Sunni and Shia deepened, and finally the Islamic teachings leading to terrorism were discussed. Even Alt Right and Alt Left terrorism is discussed, people are getting more and more aware and understanding better the world occurrences leading to wars. Russia advanced and took over a large part of Lebanon, but the U.S. is not standing and watching nor are Israel, NATO and the Europeans. Russia today hanged posters of Russian President Vladimir Putin in various regions of Lebanon, in preparation for the presidential elections scheduled for March 18, 2018 in Russia, as announced by the official Russian embassy in Lebanon: “Today, Russian citizens have joined the presidential campaign, and these posters can be seen in different regions in Lebanon and we hope that the Russian community will participate in the upcoming presidential elections on March 18 at the Russian Cultural Center in Beirut.” But who knows whether Russia will be able to hang posters of Putin and Russian in the next presidential elections.
Syrian news: The Russian base in Hameimim was attacked last night by remote-controlled aircraft. Noor Center for Studies was quoted as saying that the Russian base in Hummimim was attacked by remote-controlled aircraft late last night without details of the damage.
The military information network in the Assad forces to respond to the defenses of the airport “Hameimim” a plane march and detonated before arrival at the airport.
For the third straight time since the beginning of this year, the Russian base in Hameimim is under attack by a marching aircraft that killed two Russian troops in January. The Russian Defense Ministry has denied that its aircraft stationed at the base have suffered any injuries despite the reports of Russian newspaper Kommersant. Reported seven aircraft hit by an attack on al-Qaeda on New Year’s Eve, and published pictures showing that a number of aircraft were damaged.