We have just seen how a confederation like the EU cannot reach agreement about dealing with a country that is evidencing it wants to invade them all. The thing that the US has that is absent in the EU is the power of the President to conduct foreign affairs.  All foreign policy emanates from the US President.  The Senate advises and consents regarding ministers.  Nothing else.  It’s a ship with one captain.  Nations that lack this power are inherently weak.

We wanted a leader as strong as any King but subject to election and the Law.  We had a confederation and it didn’t work. The Constitution is our foundation and it gives great power to the duly elected President of us all and makes us a tough nut to crack.

Reconsider the current parliamentary system.  Create political subdivisions based on old established political/ethnic relationships. Those are your States.  Determine how large a lower house you want and divide the total Ukraine population by that number. Apportion them to the States by their proportion of the population.  Large states have more Representatives than small ones.

Give each state two upper chamber representatives like our Senators. That makes States with fewer people as powerful as the big ones.  Rhode Island, that is smaller than some farms in Ukraine, has the same Senate power as Texas or California.  This protects ethnic or political minority areas like Donbas.  If the majority ignores them they still have power to be heard disproportionate to their size.  When the US Constitution was formed there were political and cultural differences that made the citizens suspicious of the people from the other colonies.  The one thing they, like Ukrainians, had in common, is a power imperial force bent on destroying them all.

Give the lower house of Representatives the power to make war and the power over money, both taxes and spending.

Give the upper house Senate a final say on the lower house proposals as well as appointments of ministers.

Pay them all well.  Demand honesty and loyalty to the Constitution under penalty of Law.

Don’t call anyone a traitor unless they did something after the Constitution is enacted and then only if it is really terrible.

Ukraine, like Americans in 1775, have to fight a powerful imperial force to be and remain free.  Stick together.

You’ll all be fine.

Слава Україні

Tim in Honolulu

Gallipoli is one war movie I have never been able to sit through.  The tragic story of a WW-I battle involving Australian troops in service of the King, landing on the banks of the Turkish Straights only to be wiped out from the high ground by the Ottoman Turkish forces. Sad and frustrating beyond measure.

The Aussies are sending 50 police officers to guard the dead in Eastern Ukraine.  Good on ‘ya mates.

Поэты?Балет? Если бы Россия была сделать Сочи 2.0 они должны были бы показать Россию диктатора, который не очень хорошо. Нет балета. Не поэты. Нет композиторов. танков, смерть и беженцев. Но я считаю, что эти русские все еще там. Скрытие. Ожидание. И опять же, люди, которые принесли вам современный революцию будут услышаны и диктатор и его банда, что украл у русского народа богатство не будет больше.

 

 

We saw the Chinese swoop in and grab a bargain from the increasingly isolated Russian dictator.  Desperate to show the oligarchs that he’s still the man in charge, the Russian dictator agreed to develop gas reserves for sale to China that, by all reports, was a steal for the Middle Kingdom.  China like Russia has competing sides that must be placated by leadership.  This time the hard liners in the Red Army would have been the ones celebrating.  But that celebration my not be a long one.

China having finally if not officially conceded that Mao and Marx were equally wrong about economics continues to act like a Stalinist state.  The Chinese Red Army, that still holds much of the power, would have been thrilled seeing China’s long term goal of being the dominant world ruler advanced by doing anything to show they can stand up to the old adversary and ‘Paper Tiger,’ the United States.  But in a nation that has enjoyed unprecedented trade surpluses with the U.S.,the economists who have to keep the Chinese economy in balance, must be getting a bit nervous.

First, U.S. politics will react to the Russia-China merger as evidence that both countries must be reigned in.  The more extreme elements of the GOP the so-called ‘Neo-Cons” will use it as another excuse to build an even more powerful U.S. military.  This will put economic pressure on both China and Russia that will try to keep up.  The simple fact is that the rejection of both Chinese and Russian exchange students that will soon commence will slow these nations’  ability to transfer technology from the U.S. to their arms industry.

Second, now that China can be perceived as aligned with a dangerous and murderous dictator, U.S. politicians in both parties will now be free to impose sanctions on China for its currency manipulation and its trade imbalance. The first moves will seem modest but will signal to external capital markets that the Chinese party is coming to an end.

Third, the brutal and at times unbalanced persona of the Russian dictator will give two divergent U.S. political forces common ground. The militarists in the GOP for the fist time will find an issue that they and U.S.  left can agree on.  In the end the U.S. will adopt trade policies that are advanced as “bringing our jobs home.”  China, that now makes the large share of U.S. consumer goods will have to focus their efforts in the Russian market as the U.S. dries up.   In the absence of U.S. markets,  China’s Communist leadership will have to find a plan continue to stand as the great force in development of a better life for the Chinese people selling TV’s to the Russian people who because their wealth has been stolen by a class of oligarchs remain poor, earning an average of $9,000 per year.  In the end, China political forces will erupt, as they have historically erupted when the Emperor fails.   China will return to the status of a colony dominated by Russia that can forcing the Chinese to pay for the new opium supplied by their former colonial master in the form of Russian natural gas while Japan continues to make products welcome in the U.S. and laughs all the way to the bank.

The little Russian dictator forgot the first three rules of world conquest:  (1) Have an Army, (2) Have a Navy and (3) Have an Air Force.

It’s time to stop pretending that today’s Russia is anything but an aggressive but militarily weak regional power.  President Obama realizes it and that fact should not be lost on the Russian high command.  The U.S. armed forces are far more powerful and far better prepared for war than Russia and China combined.  Separately, the Russian Air Force could be destroyed in a matter of days.  The Russian Fleet is a rusting joke.    Its Army is a amateurish band of recent high school graduates operating obsolete equipment.  If the EU is going to accept the imposition of a military backed power running Europe it should and will be the U.S. not Russia.  Americans are sick of dying for Europe’s mistakes.

The U.S. should stop acting solely to placate the domestic politics of European countries.  If Germany or France want to go it alone the U.S. should work deals with Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic nations to forward deploy sufficient air force to inflict a crushing blow to the Russian Air Force. With the imminent installation of Aegis Ashore anti-missile technology, Russia’s intermediate missiles are close to useless.  We should pass the costs of this defense on to Europe in the form of import tariffs.  We should also insure that U.S. natural gas and oil will fill in any shortage if Russia commits economic suicide and cuts off oil and gas sales.

If Russia wants to pretend it is the Soviet Union, then the next time a Bear Bomber approaches the U.S. should have advised Russia that its actions are acts of war and any such air craft should be ordered to leave and then shot down.  If Russia scrambles the U.S. should take it as an invitation to annihilate the Russian air force. Then we should turn to the sea and sink the pathetic Russian fleet.  Every ship, submarine and destroy every dry dock.  Russia can then ask the U.S. if it’s okay to put a boat in the ocean.

This may sound extreme but, mark my words, if Europe does not convince Russia to control its little dictator, the next U.S. president will run and win on this platform.

The better course is to crush the Russian economy now, wall Russia up and keep the civilized world free from Russian aggression.  When the little dictator has been removed, Russia can apply for a membership in the civilized world.  Until then, wall it up.

The trick in using sanctions against Russia is not causing economic harm to the people we have a duty to protect. Like it or not, much of NATO is doing business with Russia.  The EU has been struggling with a long recession and remains economically fragile.  The EU needs Russian energy sales and it needs Russian markets for the goods the members produce. If the economic sanctions coming on Monday result in rapid inflation combined with pressure against the Ruble, the costs of EU goods may become out of reach to most Russians.  Also, both Russia and the EU benefit from the sales of Russian gas and oil.  With resistance to any sales of liquefied gas from the U.S. fracking boon being felt from sectors of Mr. Obama’s own party, his options are limited. My guess is the sanctions will seem insignificant at first blush.  But, when judging a weapon in an economic war, it is important to look closely at the details.  The assault on the insider oligarchs can be quite effective if your goal is to influence policy.  Targeting the top echelon of a Kleptocracy is also great theater.  Dictators have to rule within the limits of their own power.  With President Obama likely to expand conflict within the small group of top Kremlin insiders, the Russian dictator may have to start sleeping with one eye open.

For centuries, nations have respected diplomatic immunity.  Russia has rejected this civilized norm and has started kidnapping diplomats. If the Vienna Document inspectors are not immediately released the U.S. should close its own embassy in Moscow plus its outlying consular offices and expel the the entire Russian delegation from U.S. soil.  The U.N. ambassador should be permitted to stay but subject to close supervision allowed only to travel to the U.N. from an apartment near the U.N.  But all Russian consulates and its Embassy in Washington should be closed.

 

 

By waiting until the U.S. markets closed, the Obama administration gave the Russian Govt. one last chance to step away from the ledge and commence constructive dialogue free from the provocative and unproductive attempts to project its force on the ground in Ukraine.

Markets are now closed for the weekend.   Russia has to make a decision.  Tick-Tock.

The people that Russia’s agents in Slovyansk kidnapped weren’t just observers.  Under the Vienna Document, a treaty that provides for military inspections, 57 nations, including Russia, created a mechanism to address military related developments through the conduct of force inspections.  Here is a good article by the Brookings Institute describing the Vienna Documents and how it works.    http://goo.gl/slpcru

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (“OSCE”) announced today that the kidnapping victims were members of a Vienna Document inspection team conducting an inspection in the Ukraine. It was also reported by local media in the Ukraine, so fare unconfirmed, that many of the kidnapping victims were in military uniform, a fact that should not be a surprise when you consider their function is to inspect military bases and force concentrations.

Though it will no doubt deny its involvement, the Russian agents who committed the crime openly acknowledged that they must report to Moscow. The seizure of peacekeepers is considered a war crime under international and U.S. law. See 18 U.S.C. Sec. 2441(d)(I) (taking of hostages “with the intent of compelling any nation, person other than the hostage, or group of persons to act or refrain from acting as an explicit or implicit condition for the safety or release of such person or persons.”).  

So what happens now?  Because the nationality of the kidnapping victims has not been disclosed it is unclear which nations may have a direct act of war claim against Russia.  The victim nations know who their inspectors are and, it is unclear whether, under the U.N. Security Counsel Charter, such victim states would be justified to take immediate military action against Russia without warning.  I would presume a more measured approach will be applied that will simply unify the free world to crush the Russian economy and deal Russia one more well deserved humiliation.

We should know soon if the Russian Dons are all in with the Dictator’s war of aggression.  If not, I expect the Dons to announce the Dictator had an unfortunate accident over the weekend.  Otherwise, Ukraine will soon be at war and so too will Russia.